This blog may be more of interest to our sailing friends. A few people wanted to know what we thought of the service we received, so I thought I would include the details.
On Wednesday, September 9th, Rick Shema, www.weatherguy.com, emailed us.
Hi Margaret:
If you don’t mind contending with a single cold front towards the end of the passage, there may be an opportunity departing on Saturday morning.
This window has weather conditions mostly under high pressure for 3/4 of the passage and then a cold front moves eastward from the Tasmania Sea.
Departure winds are SE 10 kts increasing to 25 kts for about a day or so. Significant waves will be about 2.3 -2.5 m. Then abating and backing as you approach the high cell to Nerly 10 kts. As the front approaches, expect a moderate amount of rain and winds backing to NWerly (northwesterly) then 10 kts then Serly (southerly) 15-20 kts after the front passes.
Confidence in the above forecast is medium and difficulty level from 1-10 with 10 being most difficult is 5-7 for double handed voyage.
Let me know if you want to consider this window or look for something better.
Best Regards,
Rick Shema, CCM
We knew from all our research and friends that the chance of having a good passage at this time of year was not great. We checked all our own weather forecast resources and agreed it looked like a pretty good window. No major storms were predicted but the winds might be light at times and motor-sailing might be required. More time in Musket Cove or visiting the Yasawas would have to wait for another time! We skpyed him and told him to proceed with preparing a report and let him know we would be able to leave as soon as Friday afternoon. He said that would be even better.
This was his next report on Thursday afternoon:
September 10th, 16:04
Hi Margaret:
Here is your voyage planning and forecast report.
Weather Summary:
High pressure centered near 35S 152E at 1031 mb slowly moves eastward over the Tasmania Sea and southern New Zealand by Tuesday morning. The high cell continues moving eastward as a cold front approaches New Zealand from the Tasmania Sea. Expect to be under a high pressure ridge for most if not all of the voyage. The risk is if average speed over ground (SOG) is below 7.0 to 7.2 kts, then the cold front might impact you. The impacts would be Serly (southerly) winds 15-20 kts and unsettled skies.
Wave Heights: Significant wave heights begin at 1.0 m then rise to 2.0 m
between AP01 and AP02 in wind wave, SE trade wind swell, and a SWerly swell. This portion of the voyage may be the most uncomfortable in terms of boat motion. Wave heights rise to 2.6 m in increasing wind wave height as SWerly swell diminishes.
Significant Waves: Significant wave heights are the average of the highest
one third of the waves, which defines a spectrum of waves. Most waves will be lower than stated forecast and some will be higher. The maximum height is twice the size of the forecasted height and is considered a rare event. If the forecast is for 2.0 m wave heights, the theoretical maximum is 4.0m. Rogue waves are above this height and not defined in this spectrum.
Route:
Lazy “S” around rhumbline to Whangarei, first heading SWerly is SEerly
winds. Then adjusting course towards the south in backing wind direction. At departure, keep apparent wind angle on the beam or just forward of the beam for fast ride until winds back to Nerly. Aim Points (APs) are a guide only. Sail best course for your vessel keep in mind local hazards to navigation and actual wind/wave conditions for safe
ride.
Distance: 1220nm
Average SOG: 7.2 kts
ETE: 7 days 00 hrs
ETA: 19 Sep 1500 New Zealand Time
AP Latitude Longitude Range nm
Vadu Pt 17 40 177 23
AP01 18 00 177 00 30
AP02 20 00 176 00 140
AP03 26 00 174 00 380
AP04 30 00 174 00 240
AP05 32 00 176 00 160
AP06 34 00 176 00 120
AP07 35 55 174 35 135
Whangarei 35 45 174 21 15
Daily Position Format
Daily Position Report:
Please position report daily to rick@weatherguy.com. Suggest following
format:
Time: Day/Time PDT
Position: Latitude/Longitude
Course/Spd:
Wind Direction/Spd:
Waves Height/Direction:
Sky
Intentions next 24-48 hrs
Forecast in next message.
Best Regards,
Rick Shema, CCM
(Certified Consulting Meteorologist by the American Meteorology Society)
Weatherguy.com
Motto: PREDICT, PROVIDE, PROTECT
Part 2 of his report:
Forecast:
Fiji Standard Time Twd Tws Twa Rain Sig Wv Latitude
Longitude AP
mag kts Shwrs m S
E
9/11/2015 18:00 146° 15-20 -85° nil 1 17 40 177 23 Vadu 9/11/2015 22:00 119° 15-20 -74° nil 1.4 18 00 177 00 AP01
9/12/2015 6:00 125° 17-22 -69° nil 1.5
9/12/2015 10:00 126° 20-25 -70° trace 1.8
9/12/2015 18:00 129° 20-25 -63° nil 2 20 00 176 00 AP02
9/12/2015 22:00 132° 17-22 -59° nil 1.9
9/13/2015 6:00 123° 17-22 -64° nil 2
9/13/2015 12:00 114° 17-22 -72° nil 2.2
9/13/2015 16:00 114° 18-23 -74° nil 2.5
9/13/2015 20:00 108° 20-25 -78° nil 2.6
9/14/2015 4:00 112° 17-22 -74° nil 2.5
9/14/2015 12:00 112° 17-22 -74° trace 2.5
9/14/2015 18:00 104° 15-20 -70° trace 2.3
9/15/2015 0:00 101° 15-20 -81° trace 2.3
9/15/2015 2:00 101° 14-18 -81° mod 2.3 26 00 174 00 AP03
9/15/2015 6:00 090° 13-16 -89° trace 2.4
9/15/2015 12:00 078° 13-16 (-97°) nil 2.4
9/15/2015 18:00 069° 10-15 (-102°) nil 2.3
9/15/2015 20:00 062° 7-12 (-107°) mod 2.4
9/16/2015 0:00 054° 5-10 (-108°) mod 2.3
9/16/2015 12:00 018° 3-8 (-108°) nil 1.8
9/16/2015 16:00 002° 2-7 (-118°) nil 1.6 30 00 174 00 AP04
9/17/2015 0:00 348° 5-10 (-132°) mod 1.4
9/17/2015 6:00 350° 10-14 (-147°) mod 1.2
9/17/2015 8:00 349° 13-16 (-148°) mod 1.1
9/17/2015 10:00 348° 15-18 (-148°) trace 1
9/17/2015 14:00 345° 15-18 (-173°) mod 1 32 00 176 00 AP05
9/17/2015 18:00 350° 15-18 (-162°) mod 0.9
9/17/2015 22:00 351° 17-20 (-180°) mod 0.9
9/18/2015 6:00 343° 14-17 (150°) nil 0.9 34 00 176 00 AP06
9/18/2015 12:00 340° 12-15 (144°) nil 0.9
9/18/2015 18:00 333° 10-15 (126°) nil 0.5
9/18/2015 22:00 333° 7-12 (119°) nil 0.5
9/19/2015 0:00 334° 7-11 24° nil 0.5 35 55 174 35 AP07
9/19/2015 4:00 337° 5-10 -11° nil 0.5 35 45 174 21 Whangarei
Weather Updates:
Suggest weather updates be sent to you every other day. If agreed, first
update will be Sunday, Sep 13 sent to your sailmail address.
Next email to contain charts to shore-side email address only.
Best Regards,
Rick Shema, CCM
Part 3 of his report:
Start of Voyage
Near AP03
Near AP06 at End of Voyage
Have a safe passage!
Best Regards,
Rick Shema, CCM
(Certified Consulting Meteorologist by the American Meteorology Society)
On the morning of September 11th, we made the final preparations for an offshore passage, like checking the oil, belt tension and water filters, strapping up our dinghy, getting the ditch bag ready and stowing anything that might move. We certainly had enough food after our provisioning in Nadi!
We raised our anchor around 10am and motored for 16 miles to Vuda Point where we could fuel up and check out. It was low tide so navigating the narrow channel into the marina was a bit disconcerting. We got tied up at the fuel dock and Monty filled the fuel tanks. Then, as skipper, he went to the customs office and arranged our exit clearance. We did not have time to look around the marina. We left the dock at 3pm and motor-sailed south-west to navigate the pass before sunset.
Once again, we were leaving on a Friday and it happened to be September 11th!
Monty spotted some dolphins on our way out the pass, a “farewell” from them this time! We had nice weather and it was exciting to be setting off on a 1200 mile passage on our own!
